Risk Simulator SCM PDF Print E-mail

Supply Chain risks simulation and analysis.


Risk Simulator is a strategic agent-based simulation solution allowing:

  • Modelling of internal Supply Chain processes and detailing of rules and constraints,
  • Integration of existing risk maps,
  • Simulation of extreme scenarios taking into account mapping of risks to processes,
  • Analysing critical paths of risk propagation though the Supply Chain,
  • Results visualisation for set-up of effective accurate checkpoints.

This new and reliable approach allows:
  • Identifying risks or combinations of risks that cannot be found by traditional statistical methods,
  • Quantifying risks even without complete of data,
  • Identifying checkpoints in order to reduce risk impacts,
  • Detailing this model at operational level so as to master critical processes (inventories, replenishment, demand forecast, distribution).



Solution details:

Eurobios Risk Simulator provides companies the capabilities to model the Supply Chain under risks, globally or by sub-entities, in order to simulate all possible combination of risks and prevent serious shortfalls to its performance.
Supply Chain performance degradation almost always comes from a combination of several unrelated risks and not from a few obvious risks that are commonly expected and controlled by the company.

Thus, as a matter of fact, traditional statistics-based approaches to assess risk and avoid catastrophes are limited and do not allow understanding today’s modern and interacting organisations. But why?
Because traditional risk valuation methods assume simple causal relationships between risk and effect. They assess risk impact on single objectives at the global level and rely heavily on historical loss data that is scarce and frequently inaccurate.

Because they are economic theory driven: preset distributions for risk are assumed and used to define purely mathematical relationships, and because they try to describe a past –often an obsolete past – situation of the company whereas today’s Supply Chains and their environment change rapidly.


Limits of conventional approaches

As a matter of fact, real challenges with conventional modeling approaches to Supply Chain risks are as follows:

Risks are highly complex and cannot be adequately captured by linearly driven mathematical models,

Risks cascade through any Supply Chain. Their events interact synergistically with each other and with Supply Chain business and technical processes. The risk impacts are thus difficult to globally assess,

Risk impacts are more easily quantified at the local knowledge level than at the global one.
Risks can have multiple effects on multiple Supply Chain entities, business processes and ultimately on multiple corporate Supply Chain goals.

Risk Simulator, allowing to take into account these parameters and the complexity of organisations, is then an answer to cope with risk management issues in today's modern Supply Chains.